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What you’ll hear in this episode:

• What complex systems are, and how researchers like Stefan Thurner study them
• Real-world implications of the study of complex systems in fields like healthcare 
• The importance of starting out in a specific field and discovering interdisciplinary applications from there 

From a young age, Stefan Thurner was interested in answering the big “Why?” questions. He assumed this meant he would study philosophy, but when he was 13 he met a famous German scientist who convinced him that physics was actually the path to gain that deep insight into the fundamental nature of things.”If you want to understand how the world works, study physics,” Thurner laughs, reflecting on this pivotal meeting that started him on his path a student of science. 

Currently, Thurner is a professor for Science of Complex Systems at the Medical University of Vienna and the Santa Fe Institute, as well as the President of the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna. Before entering the field of the Science of Complex Systems, Thurner studied theoretical physics, making many contributions to the field. He gradually shifted his focus after he witnessed a seminar where a researcher was able to relate the energy consumption of a mouse to that of an elephant, and use basic math to derive that mammals have about a billion heartbeats in their lifetimes. Calling this case study “one of the masterpieces of complex systems science,” Thurner recalls the event as the turning point in his career from particle physics, where he was answering “other people’s questions,” to complex systems science where he was addressing questions that interested him. 

Complex Systems are essentially systems that are composed of many parts that are not independent of each other, and are connected through a network of interactions. Examples of complex systems include neurons in your brain, financial institutions in a community, or people in a society. 

Through these connections the elements of the system can change, and as the elements change the interactions also change, creating a “chicken-or-the-egg” reflexive relationship that is – you guessed it – complex. Complex systems are not designed or manageable by an outside force. In the past, complex systems largely relied on theorizing in the form of equations and algorithms, but now with the emergence of ‘big data,’ there are numbers associated with behaviors on a large-scale. With data to back up these studies and theories, researchers can test and filter through theories that have been developed in the past.

One goal of Complex Systems Science is to make the systems it analyzes more efficient, stable, robust, and resilient. Another goal is to invent new ways of measuring and understanding the world, in the same way that we have temperature or distance to comprehend our environment. Thurner describes this abstract area of his research as exciting, “uncharted land.” 

One complex system where Thurner applies his research and analysis is the healthcare system. Thurner was able to identify unexpected interplay between medications by tracking a group of people’s illnesses and how they are evolving in tandem with other factors over time. For example, a group of diabetic patients who were taking insulin also proved to be suppressing certain types of tumor growth, which helps medical researchers to know to look to insulin for prevention of these types of tumors. The best part about this kind of research is that it doesn’t do any harm and poses no risk to patients, as the data is anonymous and the computer is able to analyze data to understand interactions that would previously have required trials and tests on humans to accomplish. 

Thurner encourages anyone interested in pursuing a career in science to start with a specific area of study where they are able to get a deep understanding and training, and then follow their passion to a more interdisciplinary application of their skills. 

This final episode of season 1 of rinaLAB is fascinating and unlike any other science podcast you’ve heard before! Make sure to share it with a friend and then check out our other rinaLAB episodes, too.

rinaLAB is a founding_media podcast created in partnership with OST Austria.

Host: Dan Dillard

Guest: Stefan Thurner

Transcript:

welcome back to the rinalab podcast the show that explores the science and the people behind the research and innovation network Austria also known as Reno our guest this week is Stefan Turner a professor of science of complex systems he was one of the founders of the complex systems research group now known as the section for signs of complex systems two thousand one Stefan shifted his studies and focus from theoretical physics to biological and complex systems which are now his main areas of scientific work let’s find out more about what complex systems research is and how Stephan got his start today I’m with Stefan Turner who is  one then  Austrian tell me what what that was Austrian scientist of the year so what S. we were chatting over a beer and getting to know each other trying to figure out what got you into science to begin with and I want to one sure that with the audience so take us back to when you were thirteen and what was so interesting about science for you M. when I was thirteen I met them a famous German scientist one of the scientists who worked on the German atomic bomb news   it’s his name is is by ticker to and   when I told him that I would like to become a philosopher he told me that  that’s a good thing to do because he had held a chair philosophy to order and in his later age  but before that I should know how do world works and  for that there’s only one way of doing that and that’s to study physics so and I remember death C. N. nineteen started to study physics at age of thirteen at thirteen sorry no not the not the thirteen took a couple of more years in high school okay but by age seventeen eighteen year started studying physics physics and then for the PhD in particle physics and was interested in in studying  the strong force the force that keeps  the most elementary elementary particles together the quarks very strange force one of the four forces in physics and  was very theoretical work they will maybe never ever be testable experimentally which got me more and more frustrated with its going down this path in life I’m just getting frustrated but explain that because we were talking about what was frustrating about will actually what was cool about this court and it’s gonna get stronger when you pull it apart yes the the the  force between quarks

he’s very special in the sense that it to get stronger and stronger the further you pull the two things apart usually if you if you separate two things to like two magnets force gets weaker right but  in the case of of of the strong force  the interaction gets stronger is to pull them apart as if there was a rubber band between those quarks  but in reality there’s no no rubber band right so there must be something else but there is nothing just vacuum and  so back you must have a structure and it’s a little bit hard to to swallow beginning yeah  but if you assume a certain structure then you can really understand how this force comes out of nothing basically well and  and  yeah that was interested was can fork but you got frustrated and descended change directions or there’s a fork in the road I I I I didn’t didn’t decide to change directions and all I was going to office publishing in that field and am going to  conferences yeah and  and one particle physics conference there was  after dinner speech of a of a particle physicist who didn’t talk about particles and forces in physics he was talking about mice and elephants and and biology and he was driving with with  with basic math things like that amounts in the elephant and every every and every Mabel has about billion heart beats in its lifetime and  he could relate the energy consumption of four miles to the energy consumption of an elephant and to all mammals on the planet control why a  way this a very simple functional very simple relation to connect all of these full of these  biological beings and a  we just thought this was incredibly beautiful work

yeah as I say it it is it still is it’s it’s more than twenty years old now it’s one of the masterpieces our farm complex system signs I would say I told I told the guy after his talk I told him that I was fully I’ve never seen anything like this and  so we started talking will be ten after two days he invited me to his place in Los Alamos yeah and for the summer for couples months to work with him and  when someone came I I couldn’t get I couldn’t enter  the national lead because someone had stolen hockey’s conformance couldn’t couldn’t  inter easily thanks so he he was newly appointed to the Santa Fe institute and he said okay let’s just get you to to to this institute and  the change my life Santa Fe insecurities is a small institution in in Santa Fe  that was founded by  by her heroes of mine including merry cal man and   film farmer and  can a rope calmest I’m many noble prize winnings are there and  what a what a if seen their eighties for example Murray Gell Mann he won a Nobel Prize forum for particle physics and  but he was working there on particle physics he was working on languages the origin of language as he was writing a dictionary of language that that existed maybe ten thousand to fifteen thousand years ago while and  was thinking about how the how the language is spread over the Americus yeah and  listing other physicists there were working on a completely unrelated things not on physics right but on on on real world problems in a physics kind of our way from working framework and kind of physics thinking  by physics thinking I mean you try to understand it until you really understand it actually works and  so what I’ve seen there what experience stays that people were working on problems that really interested them I figured out that the inventory I love particle physics and and the questions I was working on it one of my questions your questions was yeah that to some other people found interesting or a whole community found right fundamentally important and I just want more strongly into that and and started working on it but he was on my calling my my thing my colleague

and  so I learned that that one should follow one’s own heart heart exactly and and  I was lucky coincidence it at the time I got tenure and from that year on I went to this institute every year still doing that and  statistic so studying complex systems right let’s read the focus is complex systems can you explain what  complex systems are so many people would would maybe disagree with my definition of for the complex system is but but to  for their hearing rescues Senate is that although the fiscal second St complex system is a system that’s it’s almost all complex systems are composed of many parts it’s an old independent of each other N. but they’re connected through a network a network of interactions a general thing so these parts can be idle neurons in the brain or can be banks in the in the in the financial system or it can be sales in the body are can be in companies in the economy yeah our people in the society  and they’re connected through those connections these elements of that system they can change the elements are not static banks are not always one size one size had a change every day size changes and the size changes only S. N. as a result of the interactions with the others right deals being deals being made are a trendy dense made our speculations that that that are made they determined the wealth of of an institution next time step so you have your network to change is the state of the of of the of of the elements of the complex system but it’s still not the whole story yet that solve the complex system yet if the elements change the states they will also change being directions seven very if I’m becoming they reach I might change my friends exactly I will I will stick around with who is  either reach guys or animal stupid example of  so if the phase change the directions chains

and if the instructions change the state strange we get the to connect problem right in directions change elements elements changing directions and now you have a complex system that’s the kind of thing that makes you think complex strikes me that some of the law these complex systems are self involving and I’m not looking at it so will just become banking and financial systems for a second and it’s like a lot of times people don’t look at making him a fission it’s just kind of grows in its own right and so it sounds from what our discussions were that examine a study in the complex systems allows you to perhaps then impact and have more control to make it more efficient hi because right they may not be efficient in the often they’re not the typically complex systems because complex systems just evolve and they’re not designed right  and very often the systems are also not manageable and now the situation is kind of changing because for the first time we see those in corrections this is what we call big data right and we see not only the intricacies also see the states how the change right so  telephone companies know every cell phone call in the country that’s basically all the directions that humans do well with with their voice number and  and and banks knoll the bank accounts it’s the states of people and and how do these interactions change the states we cannot pull only stated together but  we could and we cannot do it for a for for privacy reasons records and right and but  we beginning to to see all those interactions

and we do some more and more with putting sensors nowadays everywhere more more sensors than the than number of sensors is growing exponentially fast and the sensors produce data and  what the database is either about states of of components or elements points about interactions with putting it together you have data about complex systems in in most cases so for the first time you can make an experimental science out of complex systems but we could do in the past fifty years right was to theorize to make the reins tuned to to make  to write equations and and just to make algorithms it’s a trap but we couldn’t we couldn’t we couldn’t put for some the group on the ground exactly so now we can theory but now the theory and I will update it tested right and we can throw maybe lots of theory overboard and keep some they really works and it’s really really really fascinating sells like it’ll have a huge impact on being able to make things markets more efficient  banking more efficient finance one fish and this is one area right right sounds like the only more efficient also more stable our our mora  and may be more efficient and more robust or is resilient and same time

yeah in we can  but just not measuring the system in terms of hitting directions and states we can we can invent new measures like temperature when when does his system getting too staid way becomes  unstable them all the time  under what conditions is is one shock important for system in the sense that it it could keep the system over into collapse right when is the same shock not not relevant at all for the same shock in a complex system can do very different things and but we don’t understand now how that works we will now I am a confused about that and this is scientifically uncharted land it’s a it’s a it’s a map that’s white Hey kids who put your flag on it yeah and that’s and it’s a home and it’s so very expensive it’s also very disruptive  one of the things that we see a lot of  famous founders entrepreneurs they’re disrupting system questioning things I’m gonna I’m gonna quit this to  some of the things I’ve heard about it on my skin how he looks at the world and how he looks at  trains have been changed in a hundred years why not so the fact that he’s questioning things to them look re think the physics of and find better solutions

sounds very similar that’s very destructive this is very destructive in Hey here’s the data what can we do this data to make things more efficient right what what in that and we’re thinking of banking for a second but the other thing that an article that I read  was on the Iran was on health system which I think is really fascinating on the network in the complex systems of the health care system because you’ve got for years you’ve had studies that colleges and doctors do but but time to collect that data is taking taking a small sample size over years of time and then go back and say okay here’s what we found but what I’m hearing you say is now we can collect all this data now and make decisions much quicker so anyone explain how the complex system of medical sciences so again   to think of the health care system are among generally  about medicine in terms of networks you have to kind of steal networks out of date what is our date to rein it in a unique situation that we have an itemized health care records of about ten million people in a in a small country and it’s every every time a patient sees interacts with the health care system we had to get the data line produced it contains  diagnoses decide diagnose his the prescriptions the the

and and the information if drug was bolted what price where when you can continue to be used or if they switch drugs or right all the city we see we see the same  anonymize patient popping up in these data from multiple times and and we we can extract the health trajectories are also the the the the sequence of how and which drugs were bought from that we can read off  what drug works if it if the drug is both all the time it might work if it’s changed another one it might not have worked I might have cost side effects that require  not liked if the person buys I’m the drugs to to to  compensate for side effects of something we see that  and we see if if those who just changed so we see from something gets better or worse three can follow can follow in very high precision   the changes in in the in the health state of patients so what we also sees which patient has  not only what what do you see so what what problem but we see the combinations of problems that patients half at the same time and  that allows you to to extract an in network of his of a certain kind and you have to mention that network went as a network with the notes are diseases right it is a link between those diseases if many people having this is at the same time and if you

if you take all of the diseases you get it you get the network looks nice and  what the first thing that you observe is that that network  is not the same for children in our area  youngsters or if it’s all sort  Lee people it changes over time and if you know how that network changes over time and if you can identify yourself in that network you know you’re female you’re forty years old and you have this and that and that problem now you just look at the network how that looks ten years later and you can predict could you will have a king in your state now what you will have enough money in the future with high precision but you’re not waiting ten years your nose when you’re actually looking at the next network which is ten years older his sample size ten years older yes so you now this predictability of Hey if you’ve got these two things or three things there’s a high probability that this is going to happen so there’s that opens up for prevention exactly right that’s that’s that’s the thing we’re aiming at of course if you start them to to prevent these things our prediction is going to be wrong but you will be healthy it would be wrong but you’ll be healthier so anyway one of the things that I found fascinating is you were talking about  insulin

and its effect on tumors yes so what you were able to like in your studies be able see very clearly so we we to call patients from that sample of ten million people  that had did have diabetes and are treated with insulin okay so if you have heavy diabetic care treated with insulin and  then we check for all them there them the diseases that people have to gather with with diabetes end are treated with insulin and we’ve found that it’s not our we went to first to see that if you take insulin you have N. Hans probability for treating certain tumors and  the thing that we found these if we if we if we look at people who take insulin and something else completely on Rick can be completely unrelated to them usually something else that they had exactly right I can extensions of something if he takes that in combination with insulin is protective it’s it’s it’s eight suppresses too morose and  let’s not a small effect it’s all done  we don’t  saying with them any probability days it may be a little effect in that direction on this

and it’s a it’s a massive effect yeah and so  but just letting the computer search for all sorts of combinations of drug use you can you can discover completely unexpected   hello combinations of drugs did did did did a good for something right did you never thought of the so fast and it’s by the trial and error of what’s happened with the status of the two million people that are doing these these things in their own of bodies and minds and their own systems but then you combine all that data you extract combinations that are yeah  for me we’re not doing harm to anyone right everything has happened everything is anonymized it let’s see we we cannot identify those patients we cannot  cell is dated to insurance companies and and and and and that’s all impossible the cool thing is we we’re taking something without any risk twenty one and

and preventive medicine please click it’s really cool what other areas of complex systems really fast nature of the medicine and financial networks com one thing is for her to communicate these days  I’m interested in the statistics of complex systems it’s math so we will know that fix is something that’s called statistics and is is is bell shaped curve of business and  and we all know how to deal with that but if you if you if you look at complex systems then you don’t have bell ship shape curves if Kirsten look very strange this call is called fat tailed distributions okay and is it just reflects that you have the situations with complex systems that you have many many how pliers how plays a typical in large deviations from the normal are are the norm right and that’s what makes complex system so hard to manage did you have these his large number of hope liars and  the mathematics of the seas is not really yet understood how to manage how twenty systems that have these many outliers and it’s the it’s I know it’s hard it’s it’s very abstract is very fascinating thing in in mathematics what would you so one of the things that the goal of the podcast in our listeners is just kind of to help people understand the work is being done but also you know if you’re still questioning what you want to do with your life perhaps just follow your heart what would your advice be do you know a thirteen year old author is trying to figure out what they’re trying to do

what would your advice be so if you want to understand the world thank you for the X. hello I was gonna copy some those told me thirteen I think work for you it’s it’s what a really keep from that conversation with his  with these famous physicist by taker is that you that you have to learn something the specific very very deep mmhm can be very boring very and very very   how does a disciplinary yeah and then you can branch out right I think its bad advice  tool to say become as interdisciplinary this  it from the start on getting an  I think they did the right ways to become good in something really get trained if it’s narrow okay you just have to go through that narrow yes and then branch out stats never it never it never start from from everything in the beginning you will be confused you will not learn any technique you will not understand how science works  signs is a very very particular game and if you if you don’t learn that from early on you’ll never learn it later it’s very interesting parallel between what you just said and what I hear some of the entrepreneurs that we interview on some of those founders interviewed everybody’s got a life path and you always learn lessons from what you’re doing so for example of one of the recent of use would it is John Paul DeJoria who started John Paul Mitchell products and then Petrone and so on so forth

but prior to starting jumble Mitchell products she was in so two different salons and so is this kind of this he never knew that he was going to do this but it took his life path and the failures that happens like that to get to the next level and so you’re always learning you’re always learning yes and so what I’m hearing you say is whatever passion you’re doing go deep by and understand it because even if you’re not gonna there for life it can transition to the next thing would rise was hang on in your life and is now taking a whole different erection which sounds like the first direction when was wonderful but your answer questions somebody else’s asking and now you having more impact because you’re able to answer questions you have plus help society the same time very cool well I I I really appreciate the time that you’ve had with us on the show it’s been super fast entertaining what you’re doing and I’m going to definitely fall you of is there a  somewhere people to follow you like it those social media anything that the people can follow your work or yes as an with them we’re setting up a new center can be and can be a complex systems sign camp complexity science hop Vienna we go okay it’s supposed to be something like a baby sister for the Santa Fe institute okay but in Europe yeah and  yeah we show pretty very clearly what we’re doing there also mold if we get the links and put him up on our show so if anybody’s interested in following you and your work which is amazing  they’ll be able to follow you and also maybe get inspired to do their own thing great thank you very much thank you I’ve never thought about data systems and physics as being so interlocked before fasting discussion thank you step in FOR tell us more about all the work that you’re doing the real a podcast team includes medium filtered producer Mariah gossip and audio engineer Jake Wallace special thanks to robin ten vice and the amazing team at the research and innovation network Austria this was our last episode of the series so we hope you enjoyed it thank you for listening